Pension Relief Bill Presents Risks
July 6, 2012 (PLANSPONSOR.com) - New pension rules may provide relief
for underfunded pension plans but they can also increase risk, according
to Karin Franceries, an executive director in J.P. Morgan Asset
Managementfs Strategy Group.
gMost people hope that interest rates will go up so the value of
liabilities goes down,h Franceries told PLANSPONSOR. gBut with
the funding relief, the discount rate is so smoothed (over 25 years) that
the liability value is known over the next three years. Liabilities will
not be sensitive to rates anymore. This could raise a question if you are
in fixed-income investments: if rates go up, your fixed income investments
will lose in value, but your liabilities will not move at all.h
That means plan sponsors might have to increase contributions when they
could have decreased them had their liabilities been timely marked to
market. But the new law could cloud sponsorsf judgment, tempting them to
choose very short fixed-income investments to remove interest rate risk, a
move that Franceries strongly discourages.
Franceries said a pension fund which appears to be 100% funded due to
the new regulations, but is actually 80% funded, might say, geLet me
switch all my assets to cash. I wonft lose money with cash.fh
Franceries does not agree with that logic. gThe assets will not appreciate
in value, your deficit could stay constant or even increase once the
effects of the new bill disappear in a few years," she stated.
The bill presents a problem in the case of decreasing interest rates.
Sponsors can now calculate their liabilities based on benchmark bond rates
for the 25-year-preceeding period. Because interest rates were much higher
before the 2008 financial crisis, the use of higher interest rates lowers
pension liability calculations (see gDespite
Funding Relief, DB Contributions May Stay Above
Minimumh).
But should interest rates decline in subsequent years, the jig will be
up – sponsors will eventually have to increase their contributions to
match the increase in liabilities, according to Franceries. gWith a small
decrease in rates, deficits could go through the roof once the effects of
the new Bill wear off,h she said. g[Plan sponsors] would be really
hurt.h
Franceries equated the bill to Botox, the popular cosmetic
treatment that smoothes out wrinkles. Botox wears off with time. So do the
effects of the bill. It makes pensions funds look much better in the short
term,h Franceries said. gBut the effects will disappear in four to
five-year period.h
This begs the question: why did the government change the rules and why
now?
One possible explanation is that the government was pressured
by pension plans that have to contribute much more than they did than last
year due to the low interest rate environment, Franceries contended.
Another possible explanation is that the government wanted to increase
tax revenue. gIf sponsors contribute less, there are less tax-deductible
expenses, and more tax paid to the government,h Franceries said.
However, the government might not ultimately collect more tax revenue.
Unless rates increase, sponsors will eventually have to increase their
contributions, and therefore their tax-deductible expenses, she noted.
Despite the risks, Franceries said most of her clients have underfunded
pension plans and probably will take advantage of the regulations. gI
would assume theyfll be happy to go with the new bill,h she
concluded.
Jay Polansky
editors@plansponsor.com
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